Once every 12 months, the world's largest human migration happens in China. Over the 40-day travel period of Chinese New Year, three billion trips are taken, as families reunite and celebrate. Now, the most strenuous of these trips are taken by the country's 290 million migrant workers, for many of whom this is the one chance a year to go home and see parents and their left-behind children.
﻿每12个月， 在中国就要发生一场 全球最大的人口迁移。 在农历新年40余天的 旅行高峰期中， 无数家庭的重聚与欢庆， 同时伴随着30多亿次的出行。 全国2.9亿外来务工群体经历着 这些旅行中最艰难的部分， 其中大部分人1年才有这1次机会 回家看望父母和留守的孩子们。
But the travel options are very limited; plane tickets cost nearly half of their monthly salary. So most of them, they choose the train. Their average journey is 700 kilometers. The average travel time is 15 and a half hours. And the country's tracks now have to handle 390 million travelers every Spring Festival. Until recently, migrant workers would have to queue for long hours -- sometimes days -- just to buy tickets, often only to be fleeced by scalpers. And they still had to deal with near-stampede conditions when travel day finally arrived.
但是回家的方式非常有限； 机票的价格相当于 他们半个月的工资。 所以他们大部分都选择了火车。 他们的平均旅程是700公里。 平均旅行时间是15个半小时。 全国的火车轨道需要 在春节期间运送 3.9亿的旅客。 直到不久之前， 外来务工群体还需要排上好几个 小时的队——有时候长达几天—— 才能买到票， 还常常被票贩子所骗。 出发当天， 他们还得应付汹涌的人潮。
But technology has started to ease this experience. Mobile and digital tickets now account for 70 percent of sales, greatly reducing the lines at train stations. Digital ID scanners have replaced manual checks, expediting the boarding process, and artificial intelligence is deployed across the network to optimize travel routes. New solutions have been invented. China's largest taxi-hailing platform, called Didi Chuxing, launched a new service called Hitch, which matches car owners who are driving home with passengers looking for long-distance routes. In just its third year, Hitch served 30 million trips in this past holiday season, the longest of which was further than 1,500 miles. That's about the distance from Miami to Boston. This enormous need of migrant workers has powered fast upgrade and innovation across the country's transport systems.
但科技已经在开始改进这种体验。 手机和网络售票已经 占到了70%的销售额， 大大减轻了火车站的排队现象。 数字身份扫描取代了人工检票， 加快了上车的过程， 网络中人工智能的部署 优化了出行线路。 新的解决方案已经出现了。 中国最大的打车平台，滴滴出行， 推出了一项新的拼车服务， 用来匹配开私家车返乡的人群， 与寻找长途旅行交通工具的旅客。 在拼车服务开展的第3年， 在刚刚过去的假期 服务了3千万趟出行， 最长的一段距离超过了1500英里。 相当于迈阿密到波士顿的距离。 这种对外来务工人员的 巨大需求推动了 全国交通系统的快速升级和创新。
Now, the Chinese internet has developed in both familiar and unfamiliar ways. Just like in Silicon Valley, some of the seismic shifts in technology and consumer behavior have been driven by academic research, have been driven by enterprise desires, with the whims of privilege and youth sprinkled in every once in a while.
中国互联网的发展方式 看上去既熟悉，却又不同凡响。 就跟硅谷一样， 科技和消费者行为的变化 受学术研究驱动， 受企业家欲望驱动， 并伴随着每隔一段时间都会有的 突发奇想的创意，和青春的迸发。
I am a product of the American tech industry, both as a consumer and a corporate leader. So I am well acquainted with this type of fuel. But about a year and a half ago, I moved from my home in New York City to Hong Kong to become the CEO of the South China Morning Post. And from this new vantage point, I've observed something that is far less familiar to me, propelling so much of China's innovation and many of its entrepreneurs. It is an overwhelming need economy that is serving an underprivileged populous, which has been separated for 30 years from China's economic boom. The stark gaps that exist between the rich and the poor, between urban and rural or the academic and the unschooled -- these gaps, they form a soil that's ready for some incredible empowerment. So when capital and investment become focused on the needs of people who are hanging to the bottom rungs of an economic ladder, that's when we start to see the internet truly become a job creator, an education enabler and in many other ways, a path forward.
我是美国科技行业的产品， 既是消费者，也是公司负责人。 所以我对这种燃料很熟悉。 但大约一年半以前， 我从纽约的家搬到香港， 成为了华南早报的CEO。 在这个新的有利位置， 我们开始观察到一些 前所未有的事情， 推动了中国的许多创新 和许多企业家的发展。 这是一个为弱势群体服务的 巨大需求经济， 却被中国经济繁荣的30年排除在外。 富人和穷人之间， 城市跟农村之间， 或者受过教育和未上学的人 之间存在明显的代沟—— 这些代沟为培植不可思议的 力量提供了土壤。 所以当资本和投资开始专注于 在经济阶梯底层徘徊的人们， 我们就开始看到互联网 真正开始创造就业机会， 成为教育推动者， 以及在很多方面指引前进的方向。
Of course, China is not the only place where this alternative fuel exists, nor the only place where it is possible. But because of the country's sheer scale and status as a rising superpower, the needs of its population have created an opportunity for truly compelling impact. When explaining the rapid growth of the Chinese tech industry, many observers will cite two reasons. The first is the 1.4 billion people that call China home. The second is the government's active participation -- or pervasive intervention, depending on how you view it. Now, the central authorities have spent heavily on network infrastructure over the years, creating an attractive environment for investment. At the same time, they've insisted on standards and regulation, which has led to fast consensus and therefore, fast adoption. The world's largest pool of tech talent exists because of the abundance of educational incentives. And local, domestic companies, in the past, have been protected from international competition by market controls.
当然，中国不是唯一一个 存在这种替代燃料的地方， 也不是唯一可能实现这一切的地方。 但由于中国的绝对规模和 崛起中的大国地位， 人口的需求就创造出了 真正引人瞩目的影响。 当观察快速增长的中国科技产业时， 很多观察者常会提到两个原因。 首先是，有14亿人口以中国为家。 第二个因素，是政府的积极参与—— 或者是过渡干预，取决于 你如何看待这个问题。 在过去几年，中央政府 对网络基础设施的 投入非常积极， 创造了极具吸引力的投资环境。 同时，他们坚持标准和监管， 快速地达成了共识， 同时也在短时间内实现了普及。 中国有全球最大的科技人才储备， 这得益于大量的教育激励措施。 而在过去，本地，国内企业 也在国际竞争中 通过市场控制 得到了保护。
Of course, you cannot observe the Chinese internet without finding widespread censorship and very serious concerns about dystopian monitoring. As an example: China is in the process of rolling out a social credit rating that will cover its entire population, rewarding and restricting citizens, based on highly qualitative characteristics like honesty and integrity. At the same time, China is deploying facial recognition across many of its 170 million closed-circuit cameras. Artificial intelligence is being used to predict crime and terrorism in Xinjiang province, where the Muslim minority is already under constant surveillance.
当然，你观察中国互联网 就无法忽视广泛的审查， 以及对反乌托邦式 监控的严重关切。 举个例子： 中国正在推进覆盖整个国民的 社会信用评级体系， 用来奖励和限制公民， 基于他们高度定性的特征， 如诚信和正直。 同时， 中国正在1.7亿个闭路摄像头中 部署人脸识别功能。 在新疆，人工智能被用于预防犯罪 和恐怖袭击， 那里的穆斯林少数民族 已经处于不断的监视之下。
Yet, the internet has continued to grow, and it is so big -- much bigger than I think most of us realize. By the end of 2017, the Chinese internet population had reached 772 million users. That's larger than the populations of the United States, Russia, of Germany, of the United Kingdom, of France and Canada combined. Ninety-eight percent of them are active on mobile. Ninety-two percent of them use messaging apps. There are now 650 million digital news consumers, 580 million digital video consumers, and the country's largest e-commerce platform, Taobao, now boasts 580 million monthly active users. It's about 80 percent larger than Amazon. On-demand travel, between bikes and cars, now accounts for 10 billion trips a year in China. That's two-thirds of all trips taken around the world. So it's a very mixed bag.
当然，互联网仍在继续增长， 已经变得十分庞大—— 比我们大部分美国人 想象的都要大。 到2017年底， 中国网民人数达到了7.72亿。 这个数量超过了美国，俄罗斯， 德国，英国，法国和 加拿大人口的总和。 98%的中国网民使用手机互联网。 92%的人使用即时通信应用。 有6.5亿数字新闻消费者， 5.8亿数字视频用户， 中国最大的电子商务平台，淘宝， 现在每个月的 活跃用户多达5.8亿人。 这个数字比亚马逊要大80%。 按需出行，包括了自行车和汽车， 在中国一年的出行次数 超过了100亿次。 相当于全球出行总数的2/3。 这背后的机制十分复杂。
The internet exists in a restricted, arguably manipulated form within China, yet it is massive and has vastly improved the lives of its citizens. So even in its imperfection, the growth of the Chinese internet should not be dismissed, and it's worthy of our closer examination.
中国境内的互联网存在于一种受限制， 甚至可以说是被操纵的环境中， 但它十分庞大，也极大地 提高了居民的生活水平。 因此尽管它并不完美， 中国互联网的成长也不容忽视， 值得我们的仔细审视。
Let me tell you two other stories today. Luo Zhaoliu is a 34-year-old engineer from Jiangxi province. Now, his home region used to be extremely important to the Communist party because this was the birthplace of the Red Army. But over the decades, because of its separation from the economic and manufacturing centers of the country, it has slid into irrelevance. Luo, like so many in his generation, left home at a young age to look for work in a major city. He ended up in Shenzhen, which is one of China's tech hubs. As the young migrate, these rural villages are left with only elderly, who are really struggling to elevate themselves above abject poverty.
今天我还想告诉大家 另外两个故事。 罗照柳是一位来自 江西的34岁工程师。 他的家乡曾经对 共产党来说非常重要， 因为这是红军的诞生地。 但在数十年后，因为它与 中国经济和制造中心的分离， 它的地位已经变得无关紧要了。 罗，跟他的很多同辈人 一样，年轻时离开家， 在大城市寻找工作。 他最终到了深圳， 中国的科技中心之一。 随着年轻人的离开， 这些农村地区只剩下老人， 无助地在贫困线上挣扎。
After nine years, Luo decided to return to Jiangxi in 2017, because he believed that the booming e-commerce marketplace in China could help him revive his village. Like many rural communities, Luo's home specialized in a very specific provincial craft -- making fermented bean curd, in this case. So he started a small factory and started selling his locally made goods online. There have been many years of consumption growth across China's major cities. But recently, technology has been driving an explosion in craft goods sales among China's middle and upper classes. WeChat and other e-commerce platforms allow rural producers to market and sell their goods far beyond their original distribution areas.
9年后，罗决定在2017年回到江西， 因为他相信中国蓬勃发展的 电子商务市场 可以帮助他振兴他的家乡。 如很多农村地区一样， 罗的家乡以一种 省级土特产闻名—— 生产腐乳。 于是他开了一家小工厂。 开始在网上卖本地特产。 中国主要城市的消费增长 已经持续了好多年。 但最近，科技驱动了 在中国的中产及以上阶层中 手工艺品销售的暴增。 微信和其他电子商务平台 让来自农村的产品 进入市场，并销售到了 远超原销售区域之外的地方。
Research companies actually track this impact by counting what is called "Taobao villages." This is any rural village where at least 10 percent of its households are selling goods online and making a certain amount of revenue. And the growth has been significant in the last few years. There were just 20 Taobao villages in 2013, 212 in 2014, 780 in 2015, 1,300 in 2016 and over 2,100 at the end of 2017. They now account for nearly half a million active online stores, 19 billion dollars in annual sales and 1.3 million new jobs created. In Luo's first year back home, he was able to employ 15 villagers. And he sold about 60,000 units of fermented bean curd. He expects to hire 30 more people in the next year, as his demand rapidly rises.
研究公司通过“淘宝村”的数量 跟踪了这种影响。 所谓“淘宝村”，指的是活跃网店 数量达到当地家庭户数10%以上， 以及销售额达到一定水平的村庄。 在过去几年中，这个数目 增长非常显著。 2013年全国只有20个淘宝村， 2014年212个， 2015年780个， 2016年1300个 2017年则超过了2100个。 他们现在的网上活跃 店铺达到了50万个， 年销售额达到190亿美元， 创造了130万个就业机会。 在罗回到家乡的第一年， 他只雇佣了15个村民， 卖出了6万份腐乳。 他预计明年要多雇佣30个人， 以满足快速增长的需求。
There are 60 million left-behind children scattered across China's rural landscape. And they grow up with at least one parent far away from home, as a migrant worker. Alongside all the general hardships of rural life, they often have to travel vast and dangerous distances just to get to school. They account for 30 percent of the country's primary and high school students. Ten-year-old Chang Wenxuan is one of these students. He walks an hour each way every single day to school, across these deep ravines, in an isolated landscape. But when he arrives at the small farming village in Gansu province, he will find just two other students in this entire school. Now, Chang's school is one of 1,000 in Gansu alone that has less than five registered students. So with limited student interaction, with underqualified teachers and schoolhouses that are barely furnished and not insulated, rural students have long been disadvantaged, with almost no path to higher education.
中国的乡村分散着 6000万的留守儿童。 在他们的成长时期，父母至少 有一个作为外来务工人员， 远离家乡谋生。 除了农村生活普遍存在的困难外， 这些孩子常常需要 走上一大段危险的山路 去上学。 他们的数量占据了 中国初等教育学生的30%。 10岁的张文轩 就是这样的一个学生。 他每天走路1个多小时去上学， 在完全被割裂的地带中， 穿过这些深深的峡谷。 但当他到达甘肃省一个小村庄时， 整座学校只有另外的两个学生。 张同学所在的学校 是甘肃省学生注册人数 不足5个的1000所学校中的一所。 由于缺少学生互动， 外加不合格的老师， 以及没有家具和 祛暑避寒的教室环境， 农村学生很早就处于不利的环境， 几乎没有机会接受高等教育。
But Chang's future has been dramatically shifted with the installation of a “Sunshine Classroom.” He's now part of a digital classroom of 100 students across 28 different schools, taught by qualified and certified teachers live-streaming from hundreds of miles away. He has access to new subjects like music and art, to new friends and to experiences that extend far beyond his home. Recently, Chang even got to visit the Frederiksborg Castle museum in Denmark -- virtually, of course.
但张同学的未来 已经因为安装的“阳光教室” 而大大扭转了。 他现在是覆盖28个不同学校的 100个数字教室课堂的一份子， 由来自数百英里外有资质的 认证教师进行直播授课。 他接触到了诸如音乐， 艺术这样新的课程， 结识到了新的朋友， 更是体验到了在他的家乡 所体验不到的东西。 最近，张同学甚至 参观了丹麦菲德烈堡的 宫城堡博物馆， 当然，也是远程的。
Now, online education has existed for many years outside of China. But it has never reached truly transformative scale, likely because traditional education systems in other tech centers of the world are far more advanced and far more stable. But China's extreme terrain and size have created an enormous and immediate need for innovation. There's a tech start-up in Shenzhen that grew to 300,000 students in just one year. And by our best estimation at the Post, there are now 55 million rural students across China that are addressable and accessible by live-streaming classes. This market of need is larger than the entire US student population between kindergarten and grade 12.
网络教育在中国之外的国家 已经存在了很多年， 但从来没有达到这样可观的规模， 可能是因为全球其他科技中心的 传统教育系统 非常发达，也非常稳定。 但中国的极端地形和面积， 产生了对创新的旺盛而迫切的需求。 这个深圳的科技创业公司 在不到一年的时间里 发展到了30万名学生。 根据我们报社的最佳估计， 中国现在有5500万农村学生 是网络直播课堂的受众或潜在受众。 这个市场的需求比美国初等教育的 学生总人数还要多。
So I'm extremely encouraged to find out that private investment in ed-tech in China now exceeds one billion dollars a year, with another 30 billion dollars in public funding that is committed between now and 2020. As the Chinese internet continues to grow, even in its imperfection and restrictions and controls, the lives of its once-forgotten populations have been irrevocably elevated. There is a focus on populations of need, not of want, that has driven a lot of the curiosity, the creativity and the development that we see. And there's still more to come.
所以当发现私人企业 对中国教育科技的投资 现在已经超过每年10亿美元， 公共基金还承诺将从现在到2020年 投入300亿美元， 我真心地感到备受鼓舞。 随着中国互联网继续增长， 尽管存在一系列的 不完美，限制和控制， 那些被一度遗忘的人们的生活质量 已经不可逆转地得到了提升。 我们专注于人口的需求， 没有其他诀窍， 这驱动了大量的好奇和创造力， 以及我们所看到的发展。 而且还会有更多的改变发生。
In America, internet population, or penetration, has now reached 88 percent. In China, the internet has still only reached 56 percent of the populous. That means there are over 600 million people who are still offline and disconnected. That's nearly twice the US population. An enormous opportunity.
在美国，互联网人口或渗透率， 已经达到88%。 在中国，互联网 只渗透到了56%的人口。 这意味着还有超过6亿人 仍然处于离线状态，不上网。 这个数字相当于 美国人口的近两倍。 同时意味着一个巨大的机遇。
Wherever this alternative fuel exists, be it in China or Africa, Southeast Asia or the American heartland, we should endeavor to follow it with capital and with effort, driving both economic and societal impact all over the world. Just imagine for a minute what more could be possible if the global needs of the underserved become the primary focus of our inventions.
无论这种替代燃料存在于何处， 在中国或者非洲， 东南亚或者美国心脏地带， 我们应该用资本和 努力来实现这一目标， 驱动全球的经济和社会影响。 只需要稍微思考一下， 如果未被满足的全球需求 成为我们发明的主要焦点， 还会有哪些更多的可能。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause)
（鼓掌）