So, here's a prediction. If we get our cities right, we just might survive the 21st century. We get them wrong, and we're done for.
﻿有一个预言是这样的 如果我们搞好了城市 我们就可以平安活过二十一世纪 反之，如果我们弄糟了 我们就完蛋了
Cities are the most extraordinary experiment in social engineering that we humans have ever come up with. If you live in a city, and even if you live in a slum -- which 20 percent of the world's urban population does -- you're likely to be healthier, wealthier, better educated and live longer than your country cousins. There's a reason why three million people are moving to cities every single week. Cities are where the future happens first. They're open, they're creative, they're dynamic, they're democratic, they're cosmopolitan, they're sexy. They're the perfect antidote to reactionary nationalism. But cities have a dark side. They take up just three percent of the world's surface area, but they account for more than 75 percent of our energy consumption, and they emit 80 percent of our greenhouse gases. There are hundreds of thousands of people who die in our cities every single year from violence, and millions more who are killed as a result of car accidents and pollution. In Brazil, where I live, we've got 25 of the 50 most homicidal cities on the planet. And a quarter of our cities have chronic water shortages -- and this, in a country with 20 percent of the known water reserves.
在人类目前为止的所有社会工程里 城市是最伟大的尝试 如果你生活在城市 甚至是和全世界百分之二十的城市人口一样 住在贫民窟里 你都会比别人更加健康，富有，有教养 并且比你那些住在乡村的表亲们长寿 每个星期就有三百万的人移居城市 这不是没有原因的 未来的第一步总发生在城市里 这里开放，创新，具有活力，民主 城市是国际化的 让人着迷的 也是反动民族主义的解药 但是城市有它黑暗的一面 它只占据世界百分之三的面积 但却消耗着百分之七十五的能源 并且产生百分之八十的温室气体 每年有数以千计的人 在城市里死于暴力行为 而死于车祸和污染 更有数百万人 我居住在巴西 全球50个谋杀率最高的城市中， 巴西一国占据25个 并且四分之一的城市 有长期水资源短缺的问题 还是在全国百分之二十已知水储量的基础上 所以城市具有两面性
So cities are dual-edged. Part of the problem is that, apart from a handful of megacities in the West and the Far East, we don't know that much about the thousands of cities in Africa, in Latin America, in Asia, where 90 percent of all future population growth is set to take place. So why this knowledge gap? Well, part of the problem is that we still see the world through the lens of nation-states. We're still locked in a 17th-century paradigm of parochial national sovereignty. And yet, in the 1600's, when nation-states were really coming into their own, less than one percent of the world's population resided in a city. Today, it's 54 percent. And by 2050, it will be closer to 70 percent. So the world has changed. We have these 193 nation-states, but we have easily as many cities that are beginning to rival them in power and influence.
其中的问题是 避开人们熟悉的东西方大城市不讲 我们不了解那些 在非洲、拉丁美洲、亚洲的成百上千的城市 而那里却有未来百分之九十的人口增长 为什么会产生这样的知识缺口呢？ 有一部分原因是 我们还在透过民族国家的视角看世界 我们还封闭在十七世纪的模式里 狭隘，崇尚国家最高统治权 然而，在十七世纪里 当民族国家进入全盛时期 全世界少于百分之一的人口 居住于城市 今天，城市人口增长到百分之五十四 更甚，2050年前 城市人口将增长到百分之七十 世界改变了 如今全世界有193个国家 但是我们有同样多数量的城市 可以在力量和影响上与之竞争 以纽约为例
Just look at New York. The Big Apple has 8.5 million people and an annual budget of 80 billion dollars. Its GDP is 1.5 trillion, which puts it higher than Argentina and Australia, Nigeria and South Africa. Its roughly 40,000 police officers means it has one of the largest police departments in the world, rivaling all but the largest nation-states. But cities like New York or São Paulo or Johannesburg or Dhaka or Shanghai -- they're punching above their weight economically, but below their weight politically. And that's going to have to change. Cities are going to have to find their political voice if we want to change things.
大苹果城（纽约别名）拥有850万人口 年度财物预算800亿美元 城市GDP1.5万亿美元 总计超过阿根廷和澳大利亚 尼日利亚和南非 它拥有大约4万位警员 是全世界最大规模的警察局之一 可与国相竞 但是像纽约 圣保罗 约翰尼斯堡 达卡 或者上海 它们在经济上影响力巨大 却在政治领域上稍逊一筹 我们要改变这种状态 如果想要改变 城市必须寻找它的政治发言权 现在，我想和你们谈一谈
Now, I want to talk to you a little bit about the risks that cities are facing -- some of the big mega-risks. I'm also going to talk to you briefly about some of the solutions. I'm going to do this using a big data visualization that was developed with Carnegie Mellon's CREATE Lab and my institute, along with many, many others. I want you to first imagine the world not as made up of nation-states, but as made up of cities. What you see here is every single city with a population of a quarter million people or more. Now, without going into technical detail, the redder the circle, the more fragile that city is, and the bluer the circle, the more resilient. Fragility occurs when the social contract comes unstuck. And what we tend to see is a convergence of multiple kinds of risks: income inequality, poverty, youth unemployment, different issues around violence, even exposure to droughts, cyclones and earthquakes. Now obviously, some cities are more fragile than others.
城市面临的风险 那些巨大的风险 我也会简短地提出一些解决方案 我会用一个由卡耐基梅隆CREATE研究室 和我个人的，以及许多其他的研究室 所开发的大数据可视化的方法 我想要你去想象一个 不是由国家所组成的世界 而是由城市所组成的世界 现在你所看到的是一个个单独的城市 他们都拥有至少25万城市人口 暂时不谈技术细节 圆点越红，城市越脆弱 圆点越蓝，城市越具有韧性 城市的脆弱性源于社会契约的紊乱 这表现于一下几方面 收于不平等 贫困 青年失业 不同的社会暴力问题 甚至遭遇干旱，飓风和地震 一些城市是明显比其他脆弱 但好消息是，
The good news, if there is any, is that fragility is not a permanent condition. Some cities that were once the most fragile cities in the world, like Bogotá in Colombia or Ciudad Juárez in Mexico, have now fallen more around the national average. The bad news is that fragility is deepening, especially in those parts of the world that are most vulnerable, in North Africa, the Middle East, in South Asia and Central Asia. There, we're seeing fragility rising way beyond scales we've ever seen before. When cities become too fragile they can collapse, tip over and fail. And when that happens, we have explosive forms of migration: refugees.
脆弱性不是永久的 有一些城市曾经很脆弱 像哥伦比亚首都波哥大 或者是墨西哥的华雷斯成 现在已经超过世界国家平均水平 而坏消息是总体脆弱性在加深 尤其是在世界上那些最贫困的地区 北非，中东 东南亚与中南亚地区 在那里，它们的的脆弱性 以我们无法想象的程度在加深 当它积累到一定程度时， 城市将会崩溃 整个垮掉衰竭 到那时 它将会产生无数形式的移民 难民 今天世界上存在两千两百万难民
There are more than 22 million refugees in the world today, more than at any other time since the second world war. Now, there's not one refugee crisis; there are multiple refugee crises. And contrary to what you might read in the news, the vast majority of refugees aren't fleeing from poor countries to wealthy countries, they're moving from poor cities into even poorer cities -- often, cities nearby. Every single dot on this map represents an agonizing story of struggle and survival. But I want to briefly tell you about what's not on that map, and that's internal displacement. There are more than 36 million people who have been internally displaced around the world. These are people living in refugee-like conditions, but lacking the equivalent international protection and assistance. And to understand their plight, I want to zoom in briefly on Syria.
自第二次世界大战后至今为止最多数量 而现在，这可不止一个危机 而是多重难民危机 而且与你在新闻中读到不同的是 很大一部分的难民 不是前往更好的城市 而是条件更差，更贫困的城市 也就是所谓的邻近城市 地图上每一个小点都讲诉着一个痛心的故事 它们代表着挣扎和苦难 但我想简单的告诉你地图上没有什么 那就是境内流离失所者 在这个世界上 有超过3千6百万的人失去了他们的家 他们活得像那些逃亡者 但是缺少了自己国家的保护和帮助 为了了解他们的困境 我想去放大叙利亚 2007年到2010年， 叙利亚经历了有史以来最严重的干旱
Syria suffered one of the worst droughts in its history between 2007 and 2010. More than 75 percent of its agriculture and 85 percent of its livestock were wiped out. And in the process, over a million people moved into cities like Aleppo, Damascus and Homs. As food prices began to rise, you also had equivalent levels of social unrest. And when the regime of President Assad began cracking down, you had an explosion of refugees. You also had over six million internally displaced people, many of whom when on to become refugees. And they didn't just move to neighboring countries like Jordan or Lebanon or Turkey. They also moved up north towards Western Europe. See, over 1.4 million Syrians made the perilous journey through the Mediterranean and up through Turkey to find their way into two countries, primarily: Germany and Sweden.
摧毁了百分之七十五的农作物 和百分之八十五的家畜 而在这之间，超过一百万人逃离去别的城市 像阿勒波，大马士革和霍姆斯 当食物价格上涨时 也会产生同等级的社会不安 当阿萨德总统的政权开始崩塌的时候 难民的数量急剧膨胀 同时超过6百万的人流离失所 他们中很多人也都成为了难民 他们不仅仅逃亡到周边的国家，像约旦 黎巴嫩或者土耳其 他们也向北边迁移去西欧 超过一百四十万的叙利亚人 从地中海地区到土耳其 为的是抵达这两个国家 德国和瑞士 现在，气候变了
Now, climate change -- not just drought, but also sea level rise, is probably one of the most severe existential threats that cities face. That's because two-thirds of the world's cities are coastal. Over 1.5 billion people live in low-lying, flood-prone coastal areas. What you see here is a map that shows sea level rise in relation to changes in temperature. Climate scientists predict that we're going to see anywhere between three and 30 feet of sea level rise this side of the century. And it's not just low island nation-states that are going to suffer -- Kiribati or the Maldives or the Solomons or Sri Lanka -- and they will suffer, but also massive cities like Dhaka, like Hong Kong, like Shanghai. Cities of 10, 20, 30 million people or more are literally going to be wiped off the face of this earth. They're going to have to adapt, or they're going to die.
不仅是干旱， 也产生了海平面上升的问题 这对城市来说 将是最严重的威胁之一 那是因为全世界有三分之二都是临海城市 超过一百五十万人口住在低洼、 容易被淹没的沿海地区 你现在看到的是海平面上升的地图 和温度变化有关 气候学家预测未来 在所有地方都会上升3至30英尺左右 在本世纪末之前 不仅是岛屿国家将受影响 基里巴斯、马尔代夫 或者是所罗门斯或者是斯里兰卡 它们将受到严重影响 同样的，类似达卡这样的大城市， 香港 上海 那些一千万人口以上的城市 都将被淹没 他们没有选择，若不能适应， 要不然就是死 我们来看一看西方国家
I want to take you also all the way over to the West, because this isn't just a problem in Asia or Africa or Latin America, this is a problem also in the West. This is Miami. Many of you know Miami is one of the wealthiest cities in the United States; it's also one of the most flood-prone. That's been made painfully evident by natural disasters throughout 2017. But Miami is built on porous limestone -- a swamp. There's no way any kind of flood barrier is going to keep the water from seeping in. As we scroll back, and we look across the Caribbean and along the Gulf, we begin to realize that those cities that have suffered worst from natural crises -- Port-au-Prince, New Orleans, Houston -- as severe and as awful as those situations have been, they're a dress rehearsal for what's to come.
因为这不只是亚洲 或者非洲或者拉丁美洲的问题 这也是一些西方国家的问题 这是迈阿密 你们都知道迈阿密 是美国最富有的城市之一 也是最受洪灾影响的城市之一 从2017这一年 我们已经看出来了它的受影响程度 但是迈阿密是建立在湿地上的城市， 它的基础是多空石灰岩 世界上不存在任何一种拦洪坝 可以阻挡洪水渗透进来 当我们往后看 越过加勒比海和沿途的海湾 我们就会意识到 那些受到自然灾害影响的城市— 太子湾，新奥尔良，休斯顿— 都经历过十分可怕的自然灾害 但他们随时都为未知的未来做好准备 没有城市一个孤岛
No city is an island. Every city is connected to its rural hinterland in complex ways -- often, in relation to the production of food. I want to take you to the northern part of the Amazon, in Rondônia. This is one of the world's largest terrestrial carbon sinks, processing millions of carbon every single year. What you see here is a single road over a 30-year period. On either side you see land being cleared for pasture, for cattle, but also for soy and sugar production. You're seeing deforestation on a massive scale. The red area here implies a net loss of forest over the last 14 years. The blue, if you could see it -- there's not much -- implies there's been an incremental gain. Now, as grim and gloomy as the situation is -- and it is -- there is a little bit of hope.
每一个城市都与它内地所连接 在很多方面— 很多时候食物产量都会受影响 现在我们去看亚马逊的北边，隆多尼亚 它是世界上最大的森林碳化池 每年吸取百万吨的二氧化碳 你现在看到的是一条三十年的路 在道路的两边是家畜的牧场 但也是黄豆和糖的生产地 我们未来将会看到巨大规模的森林砍伐 这个红色的区域是超过十四年的森里净亏损 如果你可以看到的话， 蓝色的区域其实没有很多 可以看出红色区域的不断增加 现在，情况险峻 我们的希望少之又少 巴西政府
See, the Brazilian government, from the national to the state to the municipal level, has also introduced a whole range -- a lattice -- of parks and protected areas. And while not perfect, and not always limiting encroachment, they have served to tamp back deforestation. The same applies not just in Brazil but all across the Americas, into the United States, Canada and around the world. So let's talk about solutions. Despite climate denial at the highest levels, cities are taking action. You know, when the US pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement, hundreds of cities in the United States and thousands more around the world doubled down on their climate commitments.
从国家到省级再到地方 都推出了全方位—格状的—公园和保护区 虽然不完美，且无法随时限制侵蚀 它们多少对森林砍伐具有填塞作用 这种情况不仅仅在巴西， 还横跨整个美洲 到美国，加拿大和全世界 因此我们要来聊聊解决方案 虽然最高层否认全球变暖的说法 城市却在采取一定的行动 当美国推出巴黎气候协议 美国数百个城市以及全球数千个城市 都投入了两倍的气候承诺 （掌声）
(Applause)
当白宫取缔在庇护城市中所谓的
And when the White House cracked down on so-called "undocumented migrants" in sanctuary cities, hundreds of cities and counties and states sat up in defiance and refused to enact that order.
“无证移民” 数百个城市，郡，州都十分反对 并且拒绝执行该法令 （掌声）
(Applause)
城市正在作出相应的行动
So cities are and can take action.
但是我们需要更多
But we're going to need to see a lot more of it, especially in the global south. You see, parts of Africa and Latin America are urbanizing before they industrialize. They're growing at three times the global average in terms their population. And this is putting enormous strain on infrastructure and services. Now, there is a golden opportunity. It's a small opportunity but a golden one: in the next 10 to 20 years, to really start designing in principles of resilience into our cities. There's not one single way of doing this, but there are a number of ways that are emerging. And I've spoken with hundreds of urban planners, development specialists, architects and civic activists, and a number of recurring principles keep coming out. I just want to pass on six.
尤其是南半球的那些城市 非洲和南美的一些区域在工业化前 就已经开始城市化 他们的人口增长 比世界平均超出3倍 这样会给社会基础设施和服务 增加巨大的压力 现在，有一个绝好的机会 机会很小，但确是一个金钥匙: 在接下来的10年至20年期间， 去真正将社会恢复力注入我们的城市 只采用一个方法是行不通的 但是我们有很多选择 我个人已经和数百位城市规划者， 开发专家， 建筑师和民权运动人士谈过， 这些原则都是我们的必谈话题 这里我想告诉大家6个原则 第一：城市需要计划
First: cities need a plan and a strategy to implement it. I mean, it sounds crazy, but the vast majority of world cities don't actually have a plan or a vision. They're too busy putting out daily fires to think ahead strategically. I mean, every city wants to be creative, happy, liveable, resilient -- who doesn't? The challenge is, how do you get there? And urban governance plays a key role. You could do worse than take a page from the book of Singapore. In 1971, Singapore set a 50-year urban strategy and renews it every five years. What Singapore teaches us is not just the importance of continuity, but also the critical role of autonomy and discretion. Cities need the power to be able to issue debt, to raise taxes, to zone effectively, to build affordable housing. What cities need is nothing less than a devolution revolution, and this is going to require renegotiating the terms of the contract with a nation-state.
和一个实行策略 这样说可能听起来很不可思议 但世界上大部分的城市实则是没有计划 或者未来的构想 人们忙着处理眼前的问题， 却忽略了远观计划 每个城市都需要创意 快乐，宜居，有恢复力— 谁不想要？ 可问题是，你如何做到呢？ 所以城市政府的角色很重要 你可以选择步新加坡的后尘， 或者更糟 1971年，新加坡 制定了一个50年的都市化策略 每五年就更新一次 新加坡教会我们的， 不只是持续的重要性 也是自治和考虑周到的重要角色 城市需要发行债券的权利 去提高税收 有效分区 和建造负担得起的住房 城市需要一个权利下放的革命 这将需要重新考虑一些和国家的契约 第二：
Second: you've got to go green. Cities are already leading global decarbonization efforts. They're investing in congestion pricing schemes, in climate reduction emission targets, in biodiversity, in parks and bikeways and walkways and everything in between. There's an extraordinary menu of options they have to choose from. One of the great things is, cities are already investing heavily in renewables -- in solar and wind -- not just in North America, but especially in Western Europe and parts of Asia. There are more than 8,000 cities right now in the world today with solar plants. There are 300 cities that have declared complete energy autonomy. One of my favorite stories comes from Medellín, which invested in a municipal hydroelectric plant, which doesn't only service its local needs, but allows the city to sell excess energy back onto the national grid. And it's not alone. There are a thousand other cities just like it.
你需要绿化 城市已经在努力带领全球低碳化 他们在投资阔塞定价法 排放减量的气候目标 生物多样性、公园、自行车道和人行道 以及其间的所有事情 他们的选择数不尽数 其中很好的一件事情是 很多城市已经在太阳能 和风能领域注入重大投资 不只是在北美，也在西欧 和亚洲某些区域 今天我们的世界拥有太阳能发电厂的城市 超过8000个 其中三百个城市已经可以能源自主化 我最喜欢的一个故事来自麦德林 麦德林投资了一座水力发电厂 它不只满足当地的需求 还可以将对于的能源卖给全国电力网 然而这不是个例 还有上千个其他相似的城市 第三：投资在整合性和多用性解决方案上
Third: invest in integrated and multi-use solutions. The most successful cities are those that are going to invest in solutions that don't solve just one problem, but that solve multiple problems. Take the case of integrated public transport. When done well -- rapid bus transit, light rail, bikeways, walkways, boatways -- these can dramatically reduce emissions and congestion. But they can do a lot more than that. They can improve public health. They can reduce dispersion. They can even increase safety. A great example of this comes from Seoul. You see, Seoul's population doubled over the last 30 years, but the footprint barely changed. How? Well, 75 percent of Seoul's residents get to work using what's been described as one of the most extraordinary public transport systems in the world. And Seoul used to be car country.
那些投资在解决方案上的， 往往是那些最成功的城市 可以同时解决多个问题 用公共运输系统为例 当它设计得当的时候 迅速运转的巴士运输， 轻轨铁路， 自行车道，人行道，水路 能急剧减少排放和交通阻塞 还不只如此 他们可以改善公众健康 他们可以减少分散 他们可以增加安全性 首尔就提供了一个很好的例子 过去30年，首尔的人口增加一倍 但是它的排碳量几乎不变 这是为什么？ 百分之75的首尔居民所使用的上班方式 是被称为 世界上最高效的公共运输系统 然而首尔过去是个汽车国家 接着第四：
Next, fourth: build densely but also sustainably. The death of all cities is the sprawl. Cities need to know how to build resiliently, but also in a way that's inclusive. This is a picture right here of Dallas-Fort Worth. And what you see is its population also doubled over the last 30 years. But as you can see, it spread into edge cities and suburbia as far as the eye can see. Cities need to know when not to build, so as not to reproduce urban sprawl and slums of downward accountability. The problem with Dallas-Forth Worth is just five percent of its residents get to work using public transport -- five. Ninety-five percent use cars, which partly explains why it's got some of the longest commuting times in North America. Singapore, by contrast, got it right. They built vertically and built in affordable housing to boot.
密集的建设也要注意永存性 无计划扩展是城市的死穴 城市需要有韧性得建造 也要有包容性 这是一张达拉斯沃斯堡的图片 你现在看到是过去30年增加一倍的人口 但同时也可以用我们的肉眼看到 散布在边缘和郊区的人口 城市需要学会留白建设 以此避免盲目扩展 和贫民区 达拉斯沃斯堡的问题是 只有百分之五的居民 有机会使用公交系统 而百分之九十五的居民使用车 这也就解释了为什么它在北美 拥有最长通勤时间的记录 相比之下，新加坡就是一个正面的例子 他们垂直建设 同时也建造了居民负担得起的住房 第五：偷窃
Fifth: steal. The smartest cities are nicking, pilfering, stealing, left, right and center. They don't have time to waste. They need tomorrow's technology today, and they're going to leapfrog to get there. This is New York, but it's not just New York that's doing a lot of stealing, it's Singapore, it's Seoul, it's Medellín. The urban renaissance is only going to be enabled when cities start borrowing from one another.
最聪明的城市要学会做一个小偷 左边，右边，中间 他们没有可以浪费的时间 他们需要最新的科技 而且他们需要跳跃式前进 这是纽约 但不仅是纽约在偷， 新加坡，首尔，麦德林也在 要达到城市复兴 城市需要借鉴、分享彼此的经验 最后：全球联盟化
And finally: work in global coalitions. You know, there are more than 200 inner-city coalitions in the world today. There are more city coalitions than there are coalitions for nation-states. Just take a look at the Global Parliament of Mayors, set up by the late Ben Barber, who was driving an urban rights movement. Or consider the C40, a marvelous network of cities that has gathered thousands together to deliver clean energy. Or look at the World Economic Forum, which is developing smart city protocols. Or the 100 Resilient Cities initiative, which is leading a resilience revival. ICLEI, UCLG, Metropolis -- these are the movements of the future. What they all realize is that when cities work together, they can amplify their voice, not just on the national stage, but on the global stage. And with a voice comes, potentially, a vote -- and then maybe even a veto.
今天的世界上有超过200个城市内联盟 城市联盟的数目 比国家联盟还要多 看看全球市长议会 为已故的本杰明巴布尔 在推动城市权利运动时所创立 还有C40 这个惊人的城市网， 将数千个城市聚集在一起 以提供清洁能源 或者世界经济论坛 它在发展智能城市协议 或者100恢复型城市方案 去引领恢复力的重振 ICLEI, UCLG, 国际化大都市 这些是通往未来的方向 它们都意识到当城市聚集在一起 就可以放大它们的声音 不再只局限于国家舞台， 也在世界舞台上 而这些声音的回声就是—选票权 甚至是否决权 当国家建立在全体的国家主权上
When nation-states default on their national sovereignty, cities have to step up. They can't wait. And they don't need to ask for permission. They can exert their own sovereignty. They understand that the local and the global have really, truly come together, that we live in a global, local world, and we need to adjust our politics accordingly. As I travel around the world and meet mayors and civic leaders, I'm amazed by the energy, enthusiasm and effectiveness they bring to their work. They're pragmatists. They're problem-solvers. They're para-diplomats. And in this moment of extraordinary international uncertainty, when our multilateral institutions are paralyzed and our nation-states are in retreat, cities and their leaders are our new 21st-century visionaries. They deserve -- no, they have a right to -- a seat at the table.
城市得站起来 它们不可以等待 它们不需要寻求许可 它们可以行使自己的主权 它们懂得地区和全球 已经真正的联合在一起 我们住在一个全球的地方性世界 我们也需要改变相应的政策 当我巡游世界，与各个市长 和文明领袖们见面时 他们在工作上所表现处的能量，热情和效率 都让我感到惊奇 他们是实用主义者 他们是问题解决者 他们是平行外交官 与此同时，国际上的不确定性很高 当我们的多国制度瘫痪时 我们的民族国家也在倒退 城市和它们的领导是我们21世界的前瞻者
Thank you.
他们值得——不，他们有权利取得一席之地 谢谢
(Applause)
（掌声）