Someday, we may have robots as smart as people, artificial intelligence, AI. How could that happen? One route is that we'll just keep accumulating better software, like we've been doing for 70 years. At past rates of progress, that may take centuries. Some say it'll happen a lot faster as we discover grand new powerful theories of intelligence. I'm skeptical.
﻿总有一天，机器人 会像人类一样聪明， 这要归功于人工智能，简称AI。 这是怎样发生的呢？ 一种方法是我们将不断地 积累技术，开发出更好的软件， 我们已经这样做了70年了。 按照过去的发展速度来看， 这可能需要几个世纪的时间。 有人说，当我们发现 更新颖、更强大的智能理论时， 它将会更快地发生。 我对此持怀疑态度。
But a third scenario is what I'm going to talk about today. The idea is to port the software from the human brain. To do this, we're going to need three technologies to be good enough, and none of them are there yet. First, we're going to need lots of cheap, fast, parallel computers. Second, we're going to need to scan individual human brains in fine spatial and chemical detail, to see exactly what cells are where, connected to what, of what type. And third, we're going to need computer models of how each kind of brain cell works -- taking input signals, changing interval state and sending output signals. If we have good enough models of all the kinds of brain cells and a good enough model of the brain, we can put it together to make a good enough model of an entire brain, and that model would have the same input-output behavior as the original. So if you talk to it, it might talk back. If you ask it to do things, it might do them. And if we could do that, everything would change.
但还有第三种情况， 也是我今天要讲的。 这个想法是从人脑中移植出智能软件。 要做到这一点，需要 让三种技术的发展足够成熟， 但目前还为时尚早。 首先，我们需要很多便宜的， 高性能的，并行的计算机。 第二，我们需要精确地 从空间与化学细节上 来扫描个人的大脑， 才能确切地知道什么类型的细胞 位于哪里，它又连接着什么结构。 并且第三，我们需要一种电脑模型， 它包含了每一种 脑细胞的工作原理—— 接受输入信号，改变间隔状态， 然后发送输出信号。 如果我们有足够多的 各类大脑细胞模型， 与一个足够好的大脑模型， 我们就可以把它们结合在一起来 形成一个足够完整的大脑模型， 并且这个模型的输入输出行为 和人类大脑一样。 所以如果你跟它说话， 它可能会回话。 如果你让它去做事情，它可能会做。 如果我们能做到这一点， 一切都会改变。
People have been talking about this idea for decades, under the name of "uploads." I'm going to call them "ems." When they talk about it, they say, "Is this even possible? If you made one, would it be conscious? Or is it just an empty machine? If you made one of me, is that me or someone else?" These are all fascinating questions that I'm going to ignore ...
几十年来人们一直在谈论这个想法， 以“上传”的名义。 我把它们叫做“仿真脑 (em)”。 当他们谈论这个时会说， ”这真的可能吗？ 如果你做了一个，它会有意识的吗？ 或者它只是一个空壳的机器？ 如果你创造了一个‘我’， 那它到底是我还是其他人？” 我将忽略这些令人着迷的问题……
(Laughter)
（笑声）
because I see a neglected question: What would actually happen? I became obsessed with this question. I spent four years trying to analyze it, using standard academic tools, to guess what would happen, and I'm here to tell you what I found. But be warned -- I'm not offering inspiration, I'm offering analysis. I see my job as telling you what's most likely to happen if we did the least to avoid it. If you aren't at least a bit disturbed by something I tell you here, you're just not paying attention.
因为我看到了一个被忽视的问题： 究竟会发生什么事？ 我对这个问题很痴迷。 我花了四年时间来分析它， 使用标准的学术工具， 来猜测会发生什么， 下面我就来说一说我的发现。 但是要注意—— 我不提供灵感，只提供分析结果。 我的工作就是告诉你 最有可能会发生的事情， 如果我们没有努力避免它的话。 如果你对我在这里告诉 你的事情不感到丝毫不安的话， 那你只是没有认真听。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
OK, the first thing I can tell you is that ems spend most of their life in virtual reality. This is what you might look like if you were using virtual reality. And this is what you might see: sunlight glinting off of water, you might hear gulls flying above, you might even feel the wind on your cheeks or smell seawater, with advanced hardware. Now, if you were to spend a lot of time here, you might want a dashboard where you could do things like make a phone call, move to a new virtual world, check your bank account.
好的，我首先要告诉你们的是， 仿真脑的大部分时间 都是在虚拟现实生活中度过的。 如果你使用虚拟现实， 这就是你的样子。 这就是你们可能看到的： 阳光在水面上闪闪发光， 你可能会听到海鸥在飞翔， 在高级硬件的帮助下， 你甚至可以感觉到脸颊上的风， 或者闻到海水的味道。 如果你要花很多时间在这里， 你可能想要一个仪表盘， 让你可以做一些事情， 比如打个电话， 移动到一个新的虚拟世界， 检查你的银行账户。
Now, while this is what you would look like in virtual reality, this is what an em would look like in virtual reality. It's computer hardware sitting in a server rack somewhere. But still, it could see and experience the same thing. But some things are different for ems. First, while you'll probably always notice that virtual reality isn't entirely real, to an em, it can feel as real to them as this room feels to you now or as anything ever feels. And ems also have some more action possibilities.
这就是置身于 虚拟现实中的你真正的样子， 同样在虚拟现实中， 这就是仿真脑的真正的样子。 它是放在某处一个 服务器柜里的电脑硬件。 但是，它仍然可以看到 和体验到同样的东西。 但对于仿真脑来说， 有些事情是不同的。 首先，你可能会注意到 虚拟现实并不是完全真实的， 而对仿真脑来说，就像你 对这个房间或其他东西的感觉一样， 一切如此真实。 并且仿真脑在行动上 也有更多的可能性。
For example, your mind just always runs at the same speed, but an em can add more or less computer hardware to run faster or slower, and therefore, if the world around them seems to be going too fast, they can just speed up their mind, and the world around them would seem to slow down.
例如，你的大脑总是 以恒定的速度运行， 但是一个仿真脑可以通过增减 计算机硬件来调整运行速度， 因此，如果它们觉得周围的 世界发展得太快了， 就可以加快思维速度， 这样它们周围的世界似乎就会变慢。
In addition, an em can make a copy of itself at that moment. This copy would remember everything the same, and if it starts out with the same speed, looking at the same speed, it might even need to be told, "You are the copy." And em could make archive copies, and with enough archives, an em can be immortal -- in principle, though not usually in practice. And an em can move its brain, the computer that represents its brain, from one physical location to another. Ems can actually move around the world at the speed of light, and by moving to a new location, they can interact more quickly with ems near that new location.
此外，一个仿真脑还可以 在那个时候复制自己的副本。 这个拷贝会记住所有的东西， 如果它以同样的速度开始运行， 以相同的速度观察一切， 那可能还需要告诉它： “你只是复制品。” 仿真脑也可以制作存档， 如果有足够的档案， 一个仿真脑也可以是不朽的—— 这是从原理上讲， 不过在现实中不太常见。 一个仿真脑可以移动它的大脑， 也就是承载它的大脑的电脑， 从一个物理位置到另一个物理位置。 事实上，仿真脑可以 以光速在世界上移动， 通过移动到一个新的位置， 它们可以更快地与 在新位置附近的仿真脑交互。
So far, I've been talking about what ems can do. What do ems choose to do? To understand that, we'll need to understand three key facts. First, ems by definition do what the human they emulate would do in the same situation. So their lives and behavior are very human. They're mainly different because they're living in a different world. Second, ems need real resources to survive. You need food and shelter or you'll die. Also, ems need computer hardware, energy, cooling, or they can't exist. For every subjective minute that an em experiences, someone, usually that em, had to work to pay for it. Third, ems are poor.
到目前为止，我一直在 讨论仿真脑能做什么。 但仿真脑会选择做什么呢？ 要理解这一点， 我们需要理解三个关键的事实。 首先，根据定义，仿真脑在同一情况下 理应会做出它们所模仿的人类 所做的事情。 所以它们的生活和 行为是非常人性化的。 其中的区别主要归因于 他们生活在一个不同的世界。 其次，仿真脑需要 真正的资源来生存。 你需要食物与住所，否则就性命不保。 同样，仿真脑需要计算机硬件、 电源、散热，不然它们将不能生存。 对于仿真脑经历的每一个主观时刻， 某个“人”——它通常是仿真脑本身， 需要为此工作赚钱。 第三，仿真脑很穷。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
The em population can grow quicker than the em economy, so that means wages fall down to em subsistence levels. That means ems have to be working most of the time. So that means this is what ems usually see: beautiful and luxurious, but desks -- they're working most of the time. Now, a subsistence wage scenario, you might think, is exotic and strange, but it's actually the usual case in human history, and it's how pretty much all wild animals have ever lived, so we know what humans do in this situation. Humans basically do what it takes to survive, and this is what lets me say so much about the em world. When creatures are rich, like you, you have to know a lot about what they want to figure out what they do. When creatures are poor, you know that they mostly do what it takes to survive.
仿真脑社会的人口增长速度 快于仿真脑的经济体， 这意味着它们的工资水平 将会低到仅能维持生活， 仿真脑的大部分时间都必须工作。 这也意味着仿真脑通常会看到： 美丽又豪华的，办公桌—— 他们大部分的时间都在工作。 你可能会认为，这种只能赚取 勉强糊口的工资的情景让人匪夷所思， 但这种情况在人类历史上并不罕见， 也几乎是所有野生动物的生活方式， 所以我们知道人类 在这种情况下会做什么。 人类基本上是为了生存而行动， 这就是为什么我说了这么多 关于仿真脑世界的情况。 当生物富有时，就像你们一样， 你必须知道他们想要什么， 来弄清楚他们在做什么。 当生物贫穷时， 你知道他们大部分的 行为都是为了生存。
So we've been talking about the em world from the point of view of the ems -- now, let's step back and look at their whole world. First, the em world grows much faster than ours, roughly a hundred times faster. So the amount of change we would experience in a century or two, they would experience in a year or two. And I'm not really willing to project this age much beyond that, because plausibly by then something else will happen, I don't know what. Second, the typical emulation runs even faster, roughly a thousand times human speed. So for them, they experience thousands of years in this year or two, and for them, the world around them is actually changing more slowly than your world seems to change for you. Third, ems are crammed together in a small number of very dense cities. This is not only how they see themselves in virtual reality, it's also how they actually are physically crammed together. So at em speeds, physical travel feels really painfully slow, so most em cities are self-sufficient, most war is cyber war, and most of the rest of the earth away from the em cities is left to the humans, because the ems really aren't that interested in it.
我们已经从仿真脑的角度 讨论了它们的世界—— 现在，让我们回到现实中， 来窥视它们的整个世界。 首先，仿真脑社会的发展速度 比我们的快得多， 大概要快100倍。 所以我们在一到两个世纪里 所经历的变化， 它们会在一两年内体验到。 我不太愿意把时代设计的太远， 因为很有可能会发生其他事情， 我不知道是什么。 第二，典型的仿真脑运行得更快， 约是人类速度的一千倍。 对它们来说，在这一两年内 经历了相当于我们数千年的生活， 他们周围的世界变化得 比你的世界似乎更慢。 第三，仿真脑在少数 人口密集的城市里挤在一起。 这不仅仅是它们在 虚拟现实中如何看待自己， 也是它们实际上 是如何被挤在一起的。 相比于仿真脑的运行速度， 其物理行进速度非常缓慢， 所以大多数仿真脑城市 都是自给自足的， 大多数战争都是网络战争， 地球上剩余的大部分 远离仿真脑城市的地方， 留给了人类， 因为仿真脑对它并不感兴趣。
Speaking of humans, you were wanting to hear about that. Humans must retire, at once, for good. They just can't compete. Now, humans start out owning all of the capital in this world. The economy grows very fast, their wealth grows very fast. Humans get rich, collectively. As you may know, most humans today don't actually own that much besides their ability to work, so between now and then, they need to acquire sufficient assets, insurance or sharing arrangements, or they may starve. I highly recommend avoiding this outcome.
说到人类， 这是你们想知道的。 人类必须同时退休， 以保持良好的生活。 他们不再有竞争力了。 现在，人类开始拥有 世界上所有的资本。 经济增长非常快， 他们的财富也增长很快。 人类会共同地致富。 你们可能知道，现在大多数人类 并没有真正拥有什么东西， 除了他们的工作能力， 因此，从现在到那时， 他们需要获得足够的资产， 准备保险或分成协议， 要不然他们可能会挨饿。 我强烈建议避免这种结果。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
Now, you might wonder, why would ems let humans exist? Why not kill them, take their stuff? But notice we have many unproductive retirees around us today, and we don't kill them and take their stuff.
你们可能想知道， 为什么仿真脑会让人类存在？ 为什么不杀死并取代他们？ 但是注意到今天我们身边有 很多没有效率的退休人员， 而我们并不会杀死他们， 拿走他们的一切。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
In part, that's because it would disrupt the institutions we share with them. Other groups would wonder who's next, so plausibly, ems may well let humans retire in peace during the age of em. You should worry more that the age of em only lasts a year or two and you don't know what happens next.
在某种程度上，这是因为这样 会破坏我们与他们共享的制度。 其他群体就会想，谁会下一个遭殃？ 因此，在仿真脑时期，仿真脑 很有可能让人类和平地退休。 你应该更加担心仿真脑的时代 只会持续一到两年， 而你却不知道接下来会发生什么。
Ems are very much like humans, but they are not like the typical human. The typical em is a copy of the few hundred most productive humans. So in fact, they are as elite, compared to the typical human, as the typical billionaire, Nobel Prize winner, Olympic gold medalist, head of state. Ems look on humans perhaps with nostalgia and gratitude, but not so much respect, which is, if you think about it, how you think about your ancestors. We know many things about how humans differ in terms of productivity. We can just use those to predict features of ems -- for example, they tend to be smart, conscientious, hard-working, married, religious, middle-aged. These are features of ems.
仿真脑和人类很像， 但它们不像典型的人类。 典型的仿真脑是 几百个最有生产力的人的翻版。 所以事实上， 与一般人相比他们是精英， 是典型的亿万富翁， 诺贝尔奖得主， 奥运金牌得主，国家元首。 仿真脑可能会带着 怀旧和感激之情看待人类， 但是没有多少尊重， 就像你仔细想想， 自己是怎么看待祖先的。 我们知道许多关于 人类个体在生产力方面的不同之处。 我们可以用这些来 预测仿真脑的特征—— 例如，他们往往聪明，认真，勤奋， 已婚，有宗教信仰，中年。 这些是仿真脑的特点。
Em world also contains enormous variety. Not only does it continue on with most of the kinds of variety that humans do, including variety of industry and profession, they also have many new kinds of variety, and one of the most important is mind speed. Ems can plausibly go from human speed up to a million times faster than human speed, and down to a billion times slower than human speed. Faster ems tend to have markers of high status. They embody more wealth. They win arguments. They sit at premium locations. Slower ems are mostly retirees, and they are like the ghosts of our literature. If you recall, ghosts are all around us -- you can interact with them if you pay the price. But they don't know much, they can't influence much, and they're obsessed with the past, so what's the point?
仿真脑的世界 也有巨大的多样性。 它不仅延续了人类 大多数种类的多样性， 包括行业与专业的多样性， 他们也在很多新型特点上 体现了多样性， 而其中最重要的是思维速度。 仿真脑几乎可以 从与人类的思考速度齐平， 到比人类的速度快一百万倍， 或是比人类的速度慢10亿倍。 更快的仿真脑往往具有较高的地位。 它们体现了更多的财富， 在争论中具有优势。 它们位高权重。 较慢的仿真脑主要是退休人员， 它们就像我们文学中的幽灵一样。 如果你还记得， 鬼魂就在我们身边—— 如果你能承受代价， 也可以和它们互动。 但是它们不懂什么， 也产生不了多少影响， 但是对过去很着迷， 不过那有什么意义呢？
(Laughter)
（笑声）
Ems also have more variety in the structure of their lives. This is your life: you start and you end, really simple. This is the life of an em, who every day splits off some short-term copies to do short-term tasks and then end. We'll talk more about those short term versions in a moment, but they are much more efficient because they don't have to rest for the next day. This em is more opportunistic. They make more copies of themselves when there's more demand for that. They don't know which way the future's going.
仿真脑的生活结构中 也有更多的多样性。 这就是你的生活： 从开始到结束，很简单。 这是一个仿真脑的生活， 每天都有一些短期的拷贝， 完成短期任务，然后结束。 我们稍后会详细讨论 这些短期版本， 但是它们的效率更高， 因为它们不需要在第二天休息。 这个仿真脑很会投机取巧。 当有更多需求时， 它们会进行更多次的自我复制。 它们并不知道未来的发展方向。
This is an em designer, who conceives of a large system and then breaks recursively into copies who elaborate that, so ems can implement larger, more coherent designs. This an emulation plumber who remembers that every day, for the last 20 years, they only ever worked two hours a day, a life of leisure. But what really happened is, every day they had a thousand copies, each of whom did a two-hour plumbing job, and only one of them went on to the next day. Objectively, they're working well over 99 percent of the time. Subjectively, they remember a life of leisure.
这是一个仿真脑设计师， 它构想了一个大系统， 然后再递归地分裂成拷贝 来详细说明它的构想， 因此，仿真脑可以实现更大、 更连贯的设计。 这是仿真脑世界里的一个水管工， 它记得在过去的20年里的每一天， 它们每天只工作两小时， 是一种悠闲的生活。 但实情是，他们每天 都有一千份拷贝， 每个人都做了两小时的水管工工作， 其中只有一个人 第二天接着工作。 客观地说，它们的 工作时间超过了99%。 不过主观上，他们还记得 一种悠闲的生活。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
This, again, is you. You start and you end. This could be you if at the start of party, you took a drug that meant you would not remember that party ever after that day. Some people do this, I'm told. Toward the end of the party, will you say to yourself, "I'm about to die, this is terrible. That person tomorrow isn't me, because they won't remember what I do." Or you could say, "I will go on tomorrow. I just won't remember what I did." This is an em who splits off a short-term copy to do a short-term task and then end. They have the same two attitude possibilities. They can say, "I'm a new short-term creature with a short life. I hate this." Or "I'm a part of a larger creature who won't remember this part." I predict they'll have that second attitude, not because it's philosophically correct, but because it helps them get along.
同样是你，开始到结束。 这可能是你在派对开始的时候， 服用了一种药物， 意味着你在那天之后再也 想不起那天的派对。 有人告诉我，他们会这么做。 在派对即将结束的时候， 你是否会对自己说： “我快要死了，这太可怕了。 明天的那个人不是我， 因为他们不记得我做了什么。” 或者你可以说，“明天，我还是我， 只是不记得我刚刚做了什么。” 这是一个制造短期副本的仿真脑， 用来完成一项短期任务，然后结束。 它们有相同的两种态度。 它们可以说，“我是一个 生命短暂的生物。我讨厌这个。” 或者“我是一个更大的生物的一部分， 它只是不记得这个部分。” 我预测它们会持第二种态度， 不是因为它在哲学上是正确的， 而是因为它能帮助它们更好地相处。
Today, if the president says we must invade Iraq, and you say, "Why?" and they say, "State secret," you're not sure if you can trust them, but for ems, a copy of the president and a copy of you can go inside a safe, explain all their secret reasons, and then one bit comes out from your copy to yourself, telling you if you were convinced. So now you can know there is a good reason.
今天，如果总统说 我们必须入侵伊拉克， 你会说，“为什么？” 接着他们说，“国家机密”。 你不确定是否可以信任他们， 但是对于仿真脑来说，总统的拷贝 与你的拷贝可以进入保险箱， 解释他们所有的秘密原因， 如果你被说服了，你的拷贝就会 发送给你的本体一条信息， 告诉你：你被说服了。 所以现在你知道有一个很好的理由。
I know you guys are all eager to evaluate this world. You're eager to decide if you love it or hate it. But think: your ancestors from thousands of years ago would have loved or hated your world based on the first few things they heard about it, because your world is really just weird. So before judging a strange future world, you should really learn a lot about it, maybe read a whole book about it, and then, if you don't like it, work to change it.
我知道你们都渴望评价这个世界。 你渴望决定你是否喜欢它， 或者讨厌它。 但是想想你几千年前的祖先， 会根据他们听闻的最初的几件事， 来选择爱或恨这个世界， 因为这个世界真的很奇怪。 所以在判断一个奇怪的 未来世界之前，你应该好好了解它， 也许读一本关于它的书， 然后，如果你不喜欢它， 那就努力工作去改变它。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause)
（掌声）